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Indian GDP growth in Q2 to slow to 7.5-7.6pct

India’s GDP growth in the July-September quarter is expected to decelerate to 7.5-7.6% over 8.2% in Apr-Jun quarter mainly due to slowdown in rural demand. SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), a basket of 21 leading indicators for September quarter of the current fiscal, is showing a marginal declining trend. Consequently, the headline second quarter Gross Value Added (GVA) growth could be 7.3-7.4%, due to the slowing of rural demand. SBI said “We also believe that the growth numbers in the second quarter will be helped by a weak base in September quarter 2017-18. We estimate that the base impact on second quarter GVA growth is around 30 bps. Based on tax collections, we subsequently expect second quarter GDP growth at 7.5-7.6%.”

It further said commercial vehicle sales, domestic air passenger traffic and cement production have maintained double-digit growth during July-September quarter. All these indicators pushed up GVA in the quarter but suggest the GVA growth is slowing down due to decline in demand
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