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Goldman Sachs sees iron ore rout in 2015

Bloomberg reported that iron ore will extend a drop through 2015 when an increase in seaborne supply that’s spurred a global glut is set to accelerate.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc said that while the expansion in supply will probably moderate in the H2 of 2014, the trend rate of growth in seaborne supply exceeds demand by a ratio of three to one. Goldman kept its forecast for the steelmaking raw material at an average of USD 80 per tonne in 2015 from USD 106 this year.

Prices have tumbled 29% in 2014 as companies from Rio Tinto Group to BHP Billiton Limited increased output, betting higher volumes will more than offset falling prices.

Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley see lower rates through 2016. Fortescue Metals Group Limited has said that it’s completed USD 9.2 billion expansion to boost annual output to 155 million tonnes.

Goldman analysts Mr Christian Lelong and Mr Amber Cai said that “The shift to oversupply started barely six months ago and the adjustment phase is far from over. Seaborne supply is set to accelerate again in 2015 while Chinese steel production growth slows further.”

Source – Bloomberg


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