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Global HRC export prices dropping from CIS and China

It is learnt that in last 10 days MMK was offering EUR 380 per tonne (USD 467 per tonne) CFR FO at Italian port for December shipment. Considering a freight of USD 23 to 25 per tonne for 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes vessels, the FOB price would be EUR 355 to 357 per tonne FOB Novorossisk (USD 442 to 445)

Meanwhile the selling price from domestic Italian producers has dropped below EUR 400 per tonne to around EUR 395 per tonne with a trend clearly leading down to EUR 390 per tonne.

At this level, to be competitive, import cannot be more than EUR 370 per tonne CFR FO (about USD 455 per tonne) considering total costs of inland freight + discharging of about EUR 25 per tonne. Considering a freight of about USD 30 per tonne for 3,000 to 5,000 tonnes cargo, this price should be equivalent to about USD 425 per tonne FOB Novorossisk.

Although offers have not dropped to these levels, it is the likely price at which booking will take place. Mills will be under pressure to book orders since domestic demand slumps during winter and export is the only outlet Moreover nearly 30% depreciation of Rouble v/s USD recently has given them the elbow room to be competitive at low price levels.

On the other hand, Chinese steel mills which were offering HRC at USD 490 CFR India level for structural grade few weeks ago are reported to have caved in further. Rumours are making round that a major deal for HRC import has been done at USD 460 CFR India. Although this deal is not confirmed, some importers said that they have started to hear USD 475 levels for small sized parcels this week.

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