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EUROFER update on key emerging regions

China’s GDP growth slowed down in Q1 2014 to an annualised rate of below 5.7%. While early indicators for Q2 were rather subdued, since May the situation started to look more robust again. The PMI indexes for the manufacturing sector indicate a mild expansion in output in June. The current deceleration in growth can be largely attributed to China’s reform policy which aims to rebalance the economy towards being driven by domestic demand rather than investment and exports. One of the challenges is to temper credit growth, especially in the shadow banking sector.

GDP growth is seen around 7% in 2014 and 2015. For India growth prospects have improved with the victory of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party. It offers a real chance to implement economic reforms at a faster pace than pre viously expected. With political clarity emerging, business and household confidence is seen improving with a positive impact on private spending and investment. GDP growth is expected to be close to 6% per annum over the 2014 to 2015 period.

Brazil’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% QoQ in Q1 2014 due to a more restrictive economic policy stance, weaker sentiment and the negative impact of the deceleration of China and Argentina on exports. Looking ahead, there are no indications to expect a short term economic recovery. GDP growth will remain weak, below 2% in both 2014 and 2015 In Russia GDP contracted 0.5% QoQ in Q1 2014. Geopolitical tensions and capital outflows are weighing very negatively on the investment climate.

Interest rates were raised to support the Rouble. With investment falling at least this year, GDP growth in 2014 is seen around 0%. The 2015 outlook is uncertain and depends on further actions to solve the Crimea conflict.

Source – Strategic research Institute

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